"Lasciate ogni speranza, voi ch'entrate"

On the third day of this month, Somalia Report news agency says, armed militia tried to storm the hijacked Suezmax tanker Smyrni- held near Bargaal in Puntland, Somalia - presumably to free it from pirate control. The militia failed and went home; casualties have been reported but it is not clear who was killed or injured in the aborted attack. The Smyrni was taken by pirates from far off the Omani coast a month ago; a day before the hijack, it had been attacked with pirates firing AK47s and RPGs but had escaped. It wasn't so lucky the second time around. Managed by the Greek company Dynacom, the 156,000 DWT tanker had no security team aboard at the time. It did have, however, 14 Indian crew among its complement of 26; most of the others are Filipinos. It was also carrying 135.000 tonnes of Azerbaijan crude worth 120 million dollars.

Are all the crew still alive? We don't know. We don't care. 

Interestingly, two days after the Smyrni incident, local sources in the same district of Bargaal told reporters that unidentified helicopters had been looking for other ships held by pirates. 

Across the same expanse of water that holds the Smyrni, relatives of hostage crew of another hijacked vessel- the Albedo, taken a year and a half ago in November 2010- speak of repeated phone calls from the ship, with their sons, fathers and brothers begging for help, saying they are being tortured by pirates. These calls go to Pakistan, Bangladesh, Iran and Sri Lanka, during which khat charged voices tell them that they are beating their loved ones, forcing them to stand in the sun, or starving them. These calls have been going on for eighteen months. There are probably no calls to India, though, because the sole Indian hostage is reported to have died due to 'lack of medication'. What does this mean? Was he tortured or injured and did not get medical help? Was he sick? Has he really died?

We don't know. We don't care.

Who has attacked the Smyrni now? Is it- as initial reports said and subsequent reports say is likely- the UAE (and almost certainly US) funded Puntland Marine Police Force (PMPF)?  If so, who authorised the attack? The Puntland government, many within which are linked to pirates? The owners or managers, concerned about the huge ransom (Eleven million dollars has been mentioned) that they may have to shell out? The backers of the PMPF? Sterling Corporate Services, that trained the PMPF? (The discredited Blackwater was the original trainer, but- probably because of the spotlight on it after the Iraqi civilian deaths- many of its employees appear to have just changed their uniforms and voila, a new company- Sterling- was born. Blackwater- in whatever avatar- has strong links with powerful people in the US. Its founder, Erik Prince, remains untouchable)

What, asks Russian journalist Voytenko Mikhail, are the Smyrni's owner's excuses for exposing the crew to mortal danger, "for whose well being he is responsible?" And, "Will Puntland practice the use of force further on and what about lives of the crews and safety of the vessels and cargoes?"

Tut, tut, Mikhail. Of course they will, if their masters sitting across the world say so. What do you think the recent hoohah- with Puntland's President being keynote speaker at antipiracy conferences in London and all- have been all about? The world's navies have been doing the same thing for years; they are just outsourcing the slaughter of crews to the PMPF and such types. Distance lending enchantment to the view and all that, you know.

Meanwhile, the wife of the Albedo's Captain says that her husband's captors "put pressure on me every other day and ask when the money is being dropped. They are calling families who never received phone calls in all these months. We are all totally tired. I’m so tired mentally, but I try to calm them and convince them that everything will be resolved soon. They are impatient and in a hurry to get the money.” 

Relatives of the Albedo's crew from Pakistan and Sri Lanka speak of repeated phone calls in which hostages say they are being tortured. Families are frightened and have nowhere to go. Private groups in Pakistan are trying to raise the ransom; the wife of the Malaysian ship owner of the Albedo- who has promised to pay half the 2.85 million dollar ransom being negotiated- says her husband is in hospital because of the pressure. She said they were getting hourly phone calls from the pirates who threatened to kill a cousin who was on board the Albedo.  “We must have hope because there are so many lives on that ship,” Mrs Khosrojerdi says.

Dunno about that, Ms Khosrojerdi. However, what I do know is that we need to put up a neatly stencilled notice on the gangway of every merchant vessel. This should preferably obliterate the ubiquitous ISPS related board that sticks in my craw every time I read it. My notice should be prominent and read by every officer and crewmember stepping aboard every merchant vessel on the planet. It should be mandatory (IMO, amend everything at once, please). The notice must bear, in bold font, the same inscription that appears on the gates of hell in Dante's 'Inferno'. 

"Lasciate ogni speranza, voi ch'entrate"

Abandon all hope, ye who enter here.

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The great Kiss-Off

The air strike on Somali soil last month by EU forces - a first- has been hailed as some kind of strategic breakthrough against piracy across the world. Helicopter gunships struck pirate locations in the district of Harardhere from the air, destroying a few speedboats and  stepladders, and, say one or two reports, some fuel stockpiles. EU NAVFOR was quick to point out there were no casualties on the ground. Somali pirates were equally quick to threaten, angrily and within days of the strike, that they would execute crew they were holding hostage (that total about three hundred and twenty, mainly Asian, according to probably underplayed official numbers) if they are attacked again. The Western attack received rave reviews from around the world; the pirate threats against crews- fully foreseen by EUNAVFOR, I will wager- went largely ignored. 

The discovery of huge gas reserves off East Africa has, as I pointed out in 'The Mozambique mystique' published here two months ago, added a new element to the' fight against piracy.'  Navies, protecting commercial shipping in transit, are changing tactics as they begin to protect commercial but stationary gas fields.  The UN resolution that formed the basis for this month's land attacks on Somalia has to be seen in that context. 

There is another pattern here for anybody who cares to see it. For roughly two years now, countries across the world, whether oriental or occidental, have collectively decided that the safety of crews- hostages or not- is secondary. With contempt for crews' lives, navies have often strafed and shelled mother ships or sometimes launched commando style operations where crew have been killed or injured in the crossfire. I submit that nobody in EUNAVFOR is surprised at the threats to hostages that they would have been daft not to have anticipated, and I will wager, once again, that nobody in EUNAVFOR or NATO will be surprised if some hostages are executed if these strikes continue. Piracy allows Western navies to expand presence in the region- their strategic goal. And- even though these were EU strikes - President Obama loves drone attacks and so much of Europe will have to fall in line with US diktat. This was not a drone attack but that is the general way things will go, especially if President Dronobama wins a second term in office.

In any case, the 'catch and release' policy of the past will give way to a much more aggressive stance against piracy in future. We will see fewer incidents like that involving a British frigate last year that captured a group of pirates and later let them go after feeding them halal food, providing them cigarettes and nicotine patches and checking if the pirates were medically all right. (Contrast this with the treatment many crew are given even after years of captivity. In many cases, even their wages are not paid.) Wemay well see lethal attacks on pirates on land; hang the threats of execution of hostage crews. We will see, as we always have, robust protection of commercial interests and a simultaneous near total apathy when it comes to protection of the lives of commercial ships' crews.

If that is what is happening, and if we are to disregard crew security, a better alternative to drip-drip small airstrikes would be the following strategy- to be implemented asap: 

a)      Rescind the ISPS Code

b)      Make armed guards mandatory on all ships passing through piracy regions.

c)       Launch simultaneous attacks on all ships held for ransom and all known locations where crew hostages are being held on land. Objective: free the crews or let them die in the crossfire, once and for all. One way or another. All or nothing.

d)      Attack all pirate controlled vessels or mother ships at sea. Let hostage crews either die or be rescued.

e)      After all this, go hell for leather after pirates wherever they are, including in Somalia. Do not forget the financiers and others living abroad, including in the West. Do not ignore banking and non-banking routes that money-launder for them, including in the financial capitals of the world.

f)       If the pirates hide amongst villagers on the Somali coast, as I expect that they will, kill everybody there. Like in AfPak. Like with hostage sailors.

There will be no big outcry about the slaughter of seamen if my tongue-in-cheek recommendations are followed, if that is the fear.The ruckus will die away quickly, because as we know, seamen do not count and dead seamen count least of all. As for those innocent Somali villagers, occidental forces can do the AfPak type spin doctoring to manage fallout. War against terra and all that. They have had a lot of practice.

Many have fawned over the 'firm resolve' displayed by the EU; one or two commentators have even called the airstrikes a 'game changer.' I don't know about that, but I do know that it is seamen who are usually the game in this kind of game. 

EUNAVFOR, NATO and other military forces around the world may think, as they sit protected in their destroyers and frigates with arsenals at their disposal, that they are putting an end to piracy. That the war will be won with this new UN resolution. That everybody will live happily ever after. 

Almost everybody will, I guess. But hardly forever, because military forces will have to do the same thing in the Niger delta and at other, yet unknown parts of the world in future. They will do this at the expense of - and with a contemptuous disregard for-seafarer lives. At least acknowledge that, EUNAVFOR. Acknowledge that you have thought the escalation through.

Because I am quite sure that before you meet prince charming, you will have to kiss- and kill in the crossfire- a lot of us toads. That may well be the better alternative for you. Imagine what will happen to the 'career of choice'- and world trade- if Somali clips of crew torture start appearing on YouTube.

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Piracy (not again!) and the Kaifi Azmi option

Over the years, the lethargic and mechanical response to piracy has numbed all of us in shipping to a point when it appears that it every attack is just history repeating itself; our zombied Pavlovian reactions mirror the anaemic  actions that our Governments have taken- or, more accurately, not taken- over the years to come to terms with the scourge. Even so, it astonishes me that the industry seems incapable of analysing, predicting or anticipating where the excreta is going to hit the fan next. But perhaps I am being uncharitable; perhaps the industry simply does not care. Or perhaps I expect too much from an industry whose managers are- barring few exceptions- either bean counters, out of touch with reality or living in the Stone Age.

Some of us could see, three years ago, that the criminals in the Niger Delta would learn from those in the Horn of Africa (see The Niger Delta-the next Somalia? published here sometime in 2009), but the industry and governments were incapable of doing so. Today similar predictions are being made about Senegal, where European, Russian and Chinese owned trawlers are overfishing and decimating the livelihoods of thousands of locals. And, although I dispute the notion that overfishing was the prime reason for Somali piracy, my contention will not matter if criminals or terrorists take to boats off Senegal and target passing ships in the future, seeking justification or legitimacy for their crimes by using overfishing as a pretext.  There are already reports that one foreign trawler Captain was "beat around the balls" by local fishermen, who claim that their nets are being regularly destroyed and that catches have plummeted over the last decade due to overfishing.

Greenpeace says that there are many foreign 'super trawlers' operating off Senegal, including the largest one in the world. "This is overcapacity on an obscene scale. The European fleet is unfairly competing with local fishermen. It would take 56 traditional fishing pirogues (local canoes) one year to catch as much fish as one super-trawler can capture and process in a single day," it says. The organisation claims that "€142.7 million of European taxpayers’ money was paid to enable these vessels to fish Mauritanian and Moroccan waters between 2006 and 2012".

Which brings me to the R word.

Like it or not, Western racism (and I do not use the word lightly) has a lot to do with the tolerance-and consequent spread -of piracy. Whether it is overfishing off Africa (let the EU try this in Europe even for a day), making billions annually from the blood of mainly Asian mariner hostages of ignoring the torture and execution of these hostages, racism subtly and not so subtly drives the non-response to piracy. The recent condemnation of European and NATO forces that left 63 sub Saharan African migrants to die of thirst and hunger after drifting for two weeks in the Mediterranean last year only confirms my thinking. 

According to The Guardian, the report says it is "a dark day for Europe," and that this ghastly incident happened "even though their (refugee) boat had been located by European authorities and emergency distress calls had been issued to all other ships in the area". It claims that NATO, its warships, EU States-particularly Spain- and the Italians are to blame for the deaths. The report's author, Tineke Strik, said, "There is no doubt that if more evidence is gathered the question may arise about whether a crime has been committed here". 

I hope you are not going to ask me what this has to do with piracy and the protection of mainly Third World crews. (Pardon me for using the politically incorrect term, but at least I am not leaving nationals of 'developing countries' to die because I do not much care for their skin colour). This, my fellow Asian sailors, is part of the circus that says that it will protect you from pirates.

Meanwhile, India is playing its usual confusing game, capitulation one day, tough action the next. A report says that the Asphalt Venture Indian hostages (taken on Somali land after that ship was released last year, with one or two reported dead subsequently) will be swapped for Somali pirates held in Indian jails. On the flip side, the international community is all praise for Indian naval actions in driving away pirate mother boats from the coast last year, to the point where merchant ships are today hugging the Indian coastline in a 'safe corridor' created by these actions, giving rise, no doubt, to the Prabhu Daya and Enrica Lexie kind of incidents thanks to the massive increase in merchant traffic near the coast. 

"Ships would drive down the Indian coast if they had wheels," said a speaker at a conference (obviously held in Europe) last month. "No attacks off the Indian coast for more than a year," said the IMBs Pottengal Mukundan at that jamboree, adding that the Indian navy's action "does send the right message to pirates." In typical bureaucratese- he could have learnt this from the best of Indian babus- Mukundan added that "casualties have occurred on both sides" during those same naval actions, with both pirates and crewmembers killed. I presume he is talking of the reported indiscriminate shelling or raking by gunfire of mother ships- trawlers or dhows, usually- with crew and pirates jumping in the water or being shot or drowned or all of the above. 

I guess the 'right' message went out to mother ship crews as well. You are dispensable; you are collateral damage. We have been ordered to shoot to kill since the insurance companies have put the Indian coast in the war zone. We are trigger-happy; we don't give a rat's ass about any vessel or its crew. 

By the way, in case the naive reader believes that Somali piracy is well under control, listen to this: Risk mitigation company AKE  (although I haven't checked, I will bet my last soiled shirt that this will turn out to be a Western company) said last week, "More vessels were hijacked by Somali pirates in March (this year) than in any other month since late 2010", and that pirate activity is likely to increase, thanks to the weather, because the pirates will be encouraged by recent successes and because four of the hijacked vessels have been converted into mother ships. AKE says that attacks will also increase off Nigeria and Benin. (Run for your lives, crews of those converted mother ships. The 'right signals' from the international community are coming your way.)

The charade plays on. The world modifies tactics but continues to have no strategy in place to fight piracy. Somalia, Nigeria, Benin have no solutions, apparently- and do not forget the generally 'safer' pirates of South East Asia that have been around for decades. Where is the next hotspot? Senegal, as some are saying? Some troubled country in Latin America or Africa? The northeastern 'Maoist' coast of India?

The world does not even bother to hide the fact that it doesn't care about the safety of merchant ship crews anymore. Some countries have threatened to make illegal the payment of ransoms. Mukundan like statements are becoming more commonplace. Uncaring actions continue to speak louder than words. The hapless sailor is powerless in this game; He has little choice; all he can do is hope like hell he will not become the next hostage or the next casualty. 

Of course, he has a devil's alternative open to him. He can, if he wants instead, sit back at sea with a drink (and to hell with the D and A policy!) and quote Kaifi Azmi's urdu couplet philosophically:

"Belche laao, kholo zamin ki tahein   
Main kahaan dafan huun, kuchh pataa to chale"

(Bring out the spades; dig up the bowels of the earth.

Let us find out where I am buried, at least)

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Last tango in Somalia: Western complicity with 'Pirate-in Chief'

I am convinced that the solution to piracy is impossible not because of lack of political will, but because it suits some Western nations to either have it flourish or to ignore it while they play their usual internecine geopolitical games with well-used blinders on. Or give vent to greed. The 'international community'- a euphemism that actually means NATO to the cynics amongst us- is not outmanoeuvred by the pirates. It is often an accessory to their crimes.

As I write this, President Faroole of the State of Puntland in Somalia seems to be on an official visit to the UK; he met the UK Minister for Africa Henry Bellingham at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office in London, where he was felicitated, what with being the keynote speaker at the feel-good Combating Piracy Week Conference and all.  

Bellingham, the British Minister, welcomed Faroole on his arrival. “We are pleased to welcome President Faroole to London. The UK is developing a useful dialogue with the Puntland State of Somalia on matters of mutual interest, such as piracy", he said.

Very warm and cuddly, all this, except that Puntland is a pirate State and Faroole- at least by some accounts- is a warlord and a thug. He has been described in segments of the African press as the Pirate-in Chief and a godfather of the piracy cartel. But that is not all. The Puntland mafia is said to be involved in everything from human trafficking to African style atrocities on other tribes. 

In a publication last year titled "Pirates, Smugglers and Corrupt Tycoons – Social Bandits in Africa”, FAIR, a professional association of investigative journalists in Africa, quoted a March 2010  UN Monitoring Group report that said that “pirate economics” are so powerful in Puntland that "it is fast becoming a criminal state. The government of President Abdirahman Mohamed Faroole, instead of fighting piracy and developing his region and country, has started to share in pirates’ earnings. Senior Puntland officials, including Faroole himself and members of his cabinet have received proceeds from piracy and kidnappings."

"Over 30% of ransom payment was retained by Puntland government officials," the UN Group was quoted as having said.

The lethargic UN discovered this only in 2010; two years earlier, (and before Faroole was President) Yussef Hassan, editor of garoweonline.com (which describes itself as an independent news channel in Puntland), told CNN in an interview that 'government officials' were directly involved with piracy' in Puntland.

Reports from Puntland speak of men, women and children thrown overboard after being crammed into boats and promised a better life across the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea.  There are also horrendous stories of the rape of local women by drug-crazed pirates under the Puntland administration's protection. In addition, government protected goons are alleged to have shelled villages and murdered men, women and children in the Horn of Africa; there are tales of inhumane deportation, rape and mutilation that go along with these atrocities. The recent famine in Somalia has opened another revenue stream; reports say that displaced Somalis are being severely ill treated in Puntland which takes a third of humanitarian assistance from the transitional Somali government, pockets large amounts and simply 'deports' the refugees of famine.  

So why is Dr. Faroole being welcomed in the UK? This is because the West covertly supports Faroole. It gives Puntland money for development. It gives it more money for 'fighting the pirates.' Then Puntland gets more Western money, this time to 'rehabilitate' pirates. Huge amounts were paid additionally to Puntland to hire 'Saracen' to fight piracy. Saracen is a South African mercenary outfit that is widely believed to be connected to publicly discredited (and quietly used by Western powers in Iraq and elsewhere) Blackwater founder Erik Prince.  The Saracen deal with Puntland is now apparently off, but much of the money is already paid and gone.

In the midst of all this is the fact that the US war on terror is changing course in Africa, and the West will continue to support Faroole and his like for many reasons. This is in line with Harry Truman's "He's a bastard, but he is our bastard" failed line of suffocated thinking that has been the mark of Western foreign policy for ages. They feel that they need Faroole today; he is a powerful warlord and the West likes powerful warlords, especially if they make the right noises as keynote speakers and are willing have dirty work outsourced to them. To hell with their record. To hell with their crimes. To hell with Third World seamen hostages.

Faroole- or other powerful men in Puntland- is playing both sides against the middle, and the West is lapping it up. It continues, for its own reasons, to refuse to acknowledge the links between the Shabaab and the pirates- even as, just last Friday, Reuters reported that the "head of the United Nations counter-piracy unit believes that cooperation between pirate gangs and the militant Islamic al Shabaab group is growing, as the militants grow increasingly desperate for funding".

In exchange for Faroole's support, say some Africa observers, he and his pirate gangs are immune from US drone attacks that are increasingly targeting terrorists in Somalia. Stories circulate of how pirates go directly to the Ethiopian army barracks in Puntland with a share of ransom money extorted from shipowners. The US backed Ethiopians then guarantee that there will be no attacks on pirates or their lairs in Somalia, critics say. I presume that the United States of America - as drone controller- is involved vicariously in these guarantees, if they indeed exist.  The US is expanding its predator operations in Eastern Africa (see The Moor's Next sigh published two weeks ago) but so far not a single Somali pirate has been killed on the ground in the pirate state of Puntland.

Under these circumstances, Faroole's London trip may be brazen, but the only thing I find surprising about it is that the British no longer feel the need to be circumspect about doing business with warlords. Of course, the UK is a country that is benefitting tremendously from the spread of piracy, what with a large chunk of the anti-pirate bandwagon located there. They have other reasons to jump into bed with pirate warlords.

This security scenario will get worse now that Somalia’s deadly chaos is spreading to Kenya. Rattled by the kidnapping and killing from its resorts by Somali pirate gangs (or Al Shabaab, or both), Kenyan troops invaded Somali territory last week.  They have threatened more attacks after it became known that one of the hostages, a handicapped cancer stricken French woman, had died in pirate/terrorist custody in Somalia. They are going after Shabaab sympathisers at home in Nairobi. Kenyan airstrikes on Al Shabaab enclaves in Somalia have been reported as I write this piece- expect an escalation by the time this is published. Expect the ' war on terror' to spread South from Somalia. Expect the expected.

 Agreed that Puntland is far away from the southern action, but I believe that Western countries will continue to strike deals with any warlord in Somalia in pursuit of their perceived interests that seem to fulcrum on fighting the Shabaab, even if it means protecting the pirate cartel that is sometimes hand in glove with the terrorists. The scene is very similar to that in AfPak, and the result will be identical too. The war on piracy will continue to be a losing battle; it is not surprising that no drone attacks, smart bombs or commando operations have been carried out against pirates in Puntland by the US; after all, few seamen come from NATO countries.

The West's double standards stand exposed today because they cannot answer this question satisfactorily: Why are there no attacks on pirates in Somalia even when proven links exist between them and the Shabaab? You are conducting drone attacks against Shabaab targets, aren't you? Are we back to the failed 'Good Taliban, Bad Taliban' AFPak policy days again?

There is no progress in fighting piracy is not just because some Western nations are protecting the perpetrators, but also because the same nations- members of the old boy's club that is the UN Security Council- control the international response to it. The UN, IMO and other international bodies are compromised; their officials are happy chasing their tails while this dance of death goes on in Somalia and at sea. The issue of piracy is just a junket for these international bureaucrats. Meanwhile, ships are taken. Crew are tortured. Some die. Some are taken ashore when their ships are released. Who cares?

Another final surreal report before I leave. The International Maritime Bureau is all over the news again with its usual suspect version of events. This organisation now credits the reduction in ship hijackings this year to better policing and intervention by international naval forces, the correct application of the industry's latest Best Management Practices and other onboard security measures. “Somali pirates are finding it harder to hijack ships and get the ransom they ask for. The navies deserve to be complimented on their excellent work: they are a vital force in deterring and disrupting pirate activity,” Captain Mukundan, head honcho of the IMB, is quoted as saying. “The number of anti-piracy naval units must be maintained or increased,” he adds.

Mukundan does not deem it fit to mention that the only reason pirates have been unsuccessful in recent times is that more and more ships are using armed guards for protection- a course of action some of us have been recommending for years.  Besides the monsoons, the lack of success that pirates have had in recent times is not because of BMPs or XYZs and not because of the actions of the navies of the same countries that felicitate Faroole and his kin. Fewer ships are being taken only because of the mercenaries that are being hired by owners to protect their assets, cargo and crew (in that order). These armed guards cost up to 1500 dollars a day (they each make more every week, probably, than the Captain of the ship they protect makes in a month) and are the only reason more ships are not being taken.

This may change in future. Escalating violence may well bring its own problems, and there may well come a time when a ship is hijacked in spite of its armed escort. Does not matter; we can then chase our tails some more, bring out revised BMPs, bask in hugely exaggerated self-importance  and hold some more anti-piracy conferences in London. Where, for a change, we can invite the ghost of Genghis Khan as keynote speaker.

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Somalia, a dreadful opportunity.

I am here to tell you that the continued failure of the international community to bring political stability to Somalia- or its futile efforts at the IMO and everywhere else- will soon result in a near-spectacular increase in piracy out of that country. This will happen because the Somali famine is the biggest humanitarian disaster on earth today, and pirate gangs will soon attract thousands of Somali men who have been painted into a bloody corner. These men- and young boys, as my tale will tell- have just four choices left: Fight for the Al Shabaab and maybe die, fight for the government and maybe die, die of starvation or take to piracy.

The horrendous famine, maybe the worst in the last sixty years, has resulted in a million and a half internally displaced persons in Somalia. Twenty nine thousand children are dead; 10 million (and counting) people have been directly affected. Tens of thousands are making the sometimes month long journey to the Dadaab refugee camp in Kenya, often on foot. Many die on the way. Some mothers abandon weaker children, leaving them to starve to die on the side of the road. An estimated 1,300 Somalis are crossing into Kenya every single day to refugee camps set up by aid agencies. More than $2 billion is needed to address the crisis.

Worse, women and children are being attacked and raped en route to Dadaab- and at Dadaab-since there are few of their men around to protect them. The UN refugee agency UNHCR says that more than 80 per cent of those fleeing Somalia are women and children. But where are the men?

Turns out that the Al Shabaab- an Al Qaeda linked terror group fighting the west supported and UN recognised Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in Somalia- is abducting males as young as 12 to fight for them.  And, as it turns out, so are the TFG military units.  Some terrified Somalis are therefore leaving their men and boys behind, hidden in towns and villages, before they begin their march to Kenya and hopefully to salvation.  Jane Okello of the UNHCR is quoted in Al Jazeera, "The men are probably dead or fighting", although she says that some would have stayed back for other reasons.  Amnesty International says that that both the militants and the Somali army are guilty of recruiting child soldiers; Al Shabaab has even set up checkpoints at the border where young men are stopped and taken away.

A provocative question now: if you were one of those men, would you consider joining the pirates instead? I know I might, because maybe that is the only I see to protect my family- and stay alive.  Shipping should beware of these men because they have nothing left to lose.

The simpler response from the rest of the world- and the only one seen thus far- is to throw money at the crisis.  Set up camps, roll out the UNHCR to feed, clothe and shelter refugees. The urgently needed and much more complex response should see the UN involved in bringing about political change in Somalia. Help and pressure the league of extraordinarily beleaguered gentlemen in the TFG- on the back of a UN peacekeeping force or some such- to push for some form of centralised democratic government there. Somalia is a crisis on many fronts: humanitarian, security and piracy crises that affect the world cannot be solved without a comprehensive political resolution on the ground in that wretched country. Failure to do this will mean we will continue to fight elsewhere flames of fires that are lit in Somalia.

Let nobody assume that this will be easy. NATO is stretched already with its Libyan misadventure. Besides, EU Navfor's first mandated priority is the protection of food aid for Somalia, and more aid there will mean more UN's World Food Programme vessels in need of protection and so fewer warships available to protect commercial shipping. This is already happening.

The Americans will also have to be persuaded to put the 1993 Black Hawk Down incident aside and support a UN led political and military initiative in Somalia. They may be more inclined to do so today, given that they have now resumed drone strikes against selected terrorist targets in Somalia after many years. Even assuming US or European support- agreed, a stretched assumption- Somalia's anarchic past will be another huge obstacle. Like Afghanistan, the country is besieged by corruption, warlords and criminal gangs, not to speak of the Shabaab, locally powerful satraps or pirate gang leaders, all of whom are flush with arms and money. Huge ethnic tensions exist within Somalia- and between Somalis and the Ethiopians, who seem to send thousands of US backed troops into and out of Somalia periodically, adding to the chaos. In any case, Somali- Ethiopian wars go back to the sixteenth century.

We know that a political solution to Somalia is the only way to go; the Somali famine gives the UN an opportunity to arm-twist powerful groups- on the back of a mandated military force- into negotiations. The Al Shabaab will be the one to neutralise here, because they will not come to any table. They have to be tackled eventually; better now, when they are not in control of the entire country, then later, when they just might be.

I believe that a beginning must be made today, when Somalia needs the international community as it comes to grips with its humanitarian catastrophe. If we delay, we will be back in a year or two to the same position we were in three months ago- except that there will be thousands of fresh pirate or terrorist recruits already out there attacking us, our ships and our cargoes. And they will be much stronger.

The UN must start now. Countries around the world must support the UN with funds to fight the famine- I am not one of those sailors who finds it easy to damn all Somalis because of the actions of some of their compatriots who I may see aboard speeding skiffs from time to time. And I am not one to point to the last two decades of civil war in Somalia as the only reason for the famine (the IMF and the World Bank, besides oil companies and US' expansionist policies are major culprits, as often) and say that the Somalis deserve their misery. I do not look on them as unworthy victims.

All I say is this: The international community must find a way to engage the less rabid elements in Somalia, and come down like a ton of bricks on the more rabid ones. It must begin the process that will end anarchy and form a representative government there. Moreover, it must start now, because the iron will not stay hot forever; the horrendous famine has given us this opportunity.

We must also do this because our existing initiatives to fight piracy- that seem to consist mainly of touting, much like computer software, newer and newer versions of Best Management Practices- are getting us precisely nowhere.

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Somalia plus Yemen equals AfPak plus piracy

Shipping often complains that the world is seablind, referring in exasperation to the public's poor comprehension of all things maritime, especially to the criticality of seaborne trade to their lives and economies. Judging by the same yardstick, shipping is no better, except that it is 'shoreblind' instead. For it largely ignores, or underplays, events around the world that forebode sledgehammer blows to its future.

For more than two and a half years now, I have repeatedly warned of developments on the ground in Yemen and Somalia that would have a huge negative impact on maritime security in general and maritime piracy and terrorism in particular. One would have thought that the hundreds of people in shipping smarter than I am would have come to the same conclusions and drawn up a plan to counter this rising red tide. Alas, our contingency planning seems to be confined to doubtful checklists on far less important matters.

In a banging-head-against-brick-wall mode, let me try once again.

Aden is by far the most important port in Yemen and a major container transhipment hub. It is today surrounded by roving gangs of Islamist militia fighters, many linked to Al Qaeda, who have already captured two other major towns, looted armouries, robbed banks, attacked prisons and stolen arms and military equipment. Parts of the army and police have simply run away. One who hasn't, at least at the time of writing this piece, is General Muhammad al-Somli, who says that he cannot rule out the possibility that Islamists will take over Aden. There are reports that Zinjibar, east of Aden and the capital of neighbouring Abyan Province, captured by the Islamists a month ago, is being slowly turned into “another Taliban state like Afghanistan,” according to one senior Yemeni official. South Yemen, for the time being at least, has been handed over to the Islamists, assorted fighters- and the AQAP.

The US has stepped up drone attacks in Yemen- and has extended them across the now infamous Gulf of Aden to neighbouring Somalia. Why? Because, say US officials, American military and intelligence officials view Qaeda affiliates in Yemen and Somalia as a greater threat to the United States than the group of operatives in Pakistan who have been targeted with hundreds of drone strikes directed by the CIA in recent years. Somalia is a major training ground for the Al Qaeda, they say, expressing alarm because many Europeans and American citizens are being trained there. The Al Shabaab- another Al Qaeda affiliate- is a more potent enemy than it was last year.

Other developments in Somalia- the terrible drought and consequent famine that- combined with the two decade long collapse of the State- has displaced a quarter of its population (the UN says); the resignation of its President and escalated fighting in Mogadishu and surroundings between Shabaab and US backed African Union soldiers included- all point to even more anarchy in that country in the coming months. Anarchy is often touted as the main reason for the proliferation of piracy, so it follows that greater anarchy will equal greater piracy. Piracy linked with terrorism, by the way. All linked to the AQAP- the most dangerous Al Qaeda franchise on earth today, the Americans tell us. With Al Shabaab reportedly taking a cut of pirate ransoms. With the island of Socotra being used by pirates to refuel and rearm-obviously with Yemeni complicity; it is their island, after all. With AQAP having often declared its intention of disrupting shipping by choking the Gulf of Aden at the Bab-El-Mandab straits- and presumably the Straits of Hormuz, where the tanker MStar's terrorist bombing has been swept under the carpet by shipping.

Even a first grader should be able to connect the dots. So why don't we?

The IMO is probably fatigued after electing a new head. A good man, many say. Maybe so, but we do not need a good man. We need an efficient organisation that is honest, knows what it is doing and acts in time. We need an IMO that is proactive and ahead of the curve when it comes to piracy issues, not one that just amends its Best Management Practices after every changed pirate tactic. (On another issue, environmentalists allege that the organisation is too 'closely aligned with vested interests to ensure effective implementation of emissions reduction measures'; small wonder that the EU is taking unilateral steps here.)

Also, there is no real industry effort to pressurise governments to act to protect shipping against piracy. Armed guards, long overdue and -even now- niggardly sanctioned, are a stopgap measure, at best. Longer term, any industry cannot protect itself against terrorism without active support from governments; we fail to generate that support. Worse, we do not even really try.

Generalising, I know, but shipping can be safely written off as effete when it comes to taking any worthwhile initiative against piracy or maritime terrorism. It is a reactive setup; it shows no initiative. It does not manage or pre-empt threats, it administers them instead. It- like its seafarers- is often hostage to many. To the multibillion dollar insurance and security industry that it has indirectly spawned. To its western and commercial bias. To its own blinkered concentration on short-term gains. To the absence of a long-term strategy. To its managers' deliberate ostrich-like behaviour. To its inertia and lack of imagination. To its subtle racisms that disregard the torture of it's mainly- if I can be politically incorrect- Third World employees. In addition, to its shoreblindness, that refuses to connect the dots of geopolitical events and threats even when they are the writing on the wall.

I want this time to be different. I want the industry to first recognise the greatly increased menace from Somalia and Yemen today. I want it to then unleash whatever clout it has, nationally and internationally, to pressurise the international community- including another iffy organisation, the UN- to act concertedly against these threats in Yemen and Somalia.

Because, for our own sakes, we have to do more about piracy than just compile statistics on it.

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